Hurricane Irma has reached Florida's west coast and it's path to get there was pretty much the worst possible in terms of reducing it's power.
Hurricane Irma has reached Florida's west coast and it's path to get there was pretty much the worst possible in terms of reducing it's power.
After initial forecasts showed the storm would probably miss major land mass entirely, Irma changed course and now has a runway of conditions perfect for sustaining itself right up Florida's west coast.
Florida is set to receive the full force of the record-breaking hurricane, with residents told to evacuate from the state's southern tip.
Why is Irma's current path so bad for Florida?
Aside from the obvious observation that Irma set to batter Florida with wind, rain and sea surges, the path it took to get there bodes particularly poorly for America's sunshine state.
The key to why this is lies in the science behind how hurricanes form and sustain themselves.
Hurricanes feed off warm seas, with the moisture evaporating from their paths, causing pockets of low pressure and driving up wind speeds.
They will lose power if there is enough wind shear to knock them off course or if they hit land.
credit:NASA
Irma is enjoying all the conditions necessary to sustain itself and little of the ones needed to slow it down, becoming the first storm to sustain winds of 185mph for a period longer than a day.
While it has brought devastation to smaller Caribbean islands such as Barbuda and St Martin, it hasn't, as yet, hit any land masses large enough to slow it down.
Cuba's gain is very much Florida's loss in this regard. Had Irma's centre traveled directly over Cuba - as it had been forecast to do a few days ago - instead of grazing the coast, this would likely have taken a lot of the sting out of the storm.
Instead, Irma's path has shifted to the north with the latest estimates showing the centre of the storm will slide up Florida's warm water coastline. This water will help Irma maintain its ferocity and act as trail of fuel guiding the hurricane all the way up to northern Florida.
Among the places forecast to be hit hardest by the storm is the city of Tampa, which is now directly in Irma's path.
Storms this powerful are getting more common
Irma is breaking records for its power, but there are signs that hurricanes of this intensity will only become more frequent as time goes by.
In the fifty years between 1900 and 1949 an average of 0.8 category four and five storms were recorded in the Atlantic every year according to the US' National Hurricane Centre.
The following fifty years saw 1.2 storms of this ferocity per year while since the turn of the millennium there have been an average of two a year.
Major Atlantic hurricanes have become more frequent and intense
Average number of category 4+ hurricanes per year, coloured by average top wind speed
Data:NOAA
So far in 2017, we've had two storms of this magnitude with Hurricane Jose following hot on the heels of Irma after Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston earlier in the season.
While it is difficult to pin the causes of any one storm on climate change, the increase in global sea surface temperature will undoubtedly encourage tropical cyclones to become more powerful, if not more frequent.
If the trend so far this century is to continue, Irma's records may well be broken sooner than many will hope.
Source: telegraph.co.uk
